EIA November outlook projects world liquids supply above consumption and lower Brent prices
EIA’s November 10, 2026 outlook projects world petroleum and other liquid fuels production above consumption through December 2027, alongside a decline in Brent spot prices to $75 per barrel.
View original sourceThe U.S. Energy Information Administration’s November 10, 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook projects world petroleum and other liquid fuels production above consumption through December 2027, alongside declining Brent spot prices. For November 2026, EIA forecasts production of 105.460 million barrels per day and consumption of 103.534 million barrels per day, with Brent projected at $104 per barrel.
October 2026 is the last historical month in this forecast vintage. EIA records world liquids production of 104.470 million barrels per day and consumption of 102.780 million barrels per day for that month. Brent averaged $123.93 per barrel, up from $114.16 in September. Production exceeded consumption in October, whereas it was below consumption in September: the historical price increase therefore cautions against treating the monthly balance as a mechanical explanation of prices.
Supply growth outpaces consumption in the projection
By December 2027, EIA projects world liquids production of 110.042 million barrels per day against forecast consumption of 106.032 million barrels per day. Production is projected to exceed consumption in every forecast month, although the approximate modeled gap varies. That balance is not a direct measure of observed inventory changes and does not guarantee a particular price direction.
EIA forecasts Brent at $99 per barrel in December 2026 and $75 in December 2027. Separately, U.S. crude production is projected to reach 14.552 million barrels per day in December 2027, compared with a historical October 2026 reading of 13.809 million barrels per day. This narrower crude series is distinct from the global petroleum and other liquid fuels measures.
The central economic signal is a projected easing in energy-cost pressure rather than a contraction in global liquids consumption. If the forecast decline in Brent passes through to fuel prices, it could reduce transport and production costs and ease household energy spending. Those channels could lessen inflation pressure, but the magnitude depends on pass-through that these projections do not quantify.
The outlook’s stronger supply path supports that interpretation, while the historical October price increase underlines the limits of a balance-only reading. These are conditional EIA projections from the November 10 release, not realized outcomes or assured savings for energy users.
Article information
This article draws on the cited sources and relevant public material. It may include summaries, translations or supporting analysis and does not replace the full announcement, regulatory document or dataset. Check facts, definitions, statistical methods and effective conditions against the original source, particularly where a translation differs.
Companies, broker brands and legal entities must be distinguished. A licence, permission or announcement concerning one entity should not automatically be applied to related brands, other entities, products or jurisdictions. Reporting and commentary do not constitute investment advice, trading recommendations or assurances of safety, compliance or suitability.
Information is time-sensitive: announcements, register entries and data may be updated or revised. The publication and update dates on this page refer to this website’s article record and may differ from the event or original release date. Before acting, check current source material, the applicable jurisdiction and your actual contracting entity.