Treasury Curve Flattens as 10-Year Yield Falls to 4.91% on November 2
U.S. Treasury yields diverged on November 2: the two-year rose to 4.59%, while the 10-year and 30-year fell to 4.91% and 5.28%. The 10-year real yield increased to 2.62%, contrasting with its decline over the month.
U.S. Treasury nominal par yields stood at 4.59% for two years, 4.91% for 10 years and 5.28% for 30 years on November 2, 2026, while the 10-year real par yield was 2.62%, according to the U.S. Department of the Treasury. Longer-term nominal yields continued to decline, but a rise in the two-year yield made the day's move a flattening rather than a uniform easing across maturities.
Compared with October 30, the two-year nominal yield rose 3 basis points, while the 10-year and 30-year yields each fell 3 basis points. The 10-year yield remained 32 basis points above the two-year, leaving that segment upward sloping. The 30-year yield was another 37 basis points above the 10-year, so the curve also retained an upward slope at longer maturities.
The broader comparison still points to lower long-term yields. Relative to October 2, the 10-year nominal yield was down 37 basis points and its real counterpart was down 30 basis points. Both nominal long-term yields reached their lowest readings among the observations from October 5 through November 2, although that period included several temporary increases rather than an uninterrupted decline.
The latest daily real-yield move differed from that broader pattern: the 10-year real yield rose 2 basis points. Ten-year inflation compensation—the nominal yield minus the real yield—stood at 2.29%. This is not a pure inflation forecast, because liquidity and risk premia also matter. Treasury's real par yields are derived from inflation-protected securities; its nominal par yields are estimates, not intraday executable quotes.
Mixed daily signal, broader easing
The monthly decline in nominal and real 10-year yields points toward easier long-term financing conditions. If transmitted into household and business borrowing rates, lower yields could support interest-sensitive consumption and make investment projects less costly to finance, potentially supporting demand and inflation over time.
However, the latest session offers a less uniform signal: short-term nominal and 10-year real yields rose. That divergence limits the case for describing November 2 as broad-based easing. Actual effects on spending would depend on financing terms available to borrowers, rather than Treasury yields alone.
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